Sales in the personal luxury goods market are slated to drop for the first time since the Great Recession, with the state of things expected to worsen further in the event that President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his plans for sweeping tariffs. In its annual Luxury Study, released this week, Bain & Company says that the global personal luxury goods market is likely to dip by 2% to €363 billion (from an expected €369 billion) in 2024, coinciding with the number of luxury buyers dropping by 50 million this year. Bain’s analysts point to steep price increases imposed by brands and global turmoil, including wars and a number of national elections, as driving down the state of luxury goods spending, as well as the base of consumers engaging in spending in this segment of the market.
In addition to enduring efforts by brands to increase their prices (which may be driving demand for dupes), Bain’s Claudia D’Arpizio says that luxury goods purveyors’ focus on “quiet luxury” has not necessarily generated traction among large swathes of shoppers, who seemingly still favor bolder displays of companies’ branding. There are roughly “50 million fewer [luxury goods] customers either because they can’t afford to shop, or they don’t want to because they don’t feel there is enough [creative] juice.”
> A snapshot of markets and product categories: The forecast reflects “continued strength in Japan, solidity in southern Europe, and a progressively improving trajectory in the U.S., but also a rapid slowdown in China and challenging conditions in South Korea,” per Bain. “Globally, the strongest category growth was found in beauty and eyewear. Jewelry was the most resilient core luxury category. Shoes and watches struggled.”
> Looking ahead: “Longer-term market growth should be solid thanks to anticipated increases in wealth and the luxury consumer base. Unlocking that growth will require clarity in strategy and execution. Brands should rediscover their purpose and embrace the foundational pillars of the industry: desirability fueled by craftsmanship, creativity, and distinctive brand values; meaningful, personalized, and culturally resonant customer connections and experiences; and tech-enabled flawless execution.”
What comes after quiet luxury, the trend that saw the embrace of understated styles (and thus, the shunning of bold branding)? Quiet logos, according to a report from the WSJ, which recently wrote: “Some old-money clothing brands, like Brunello Cucinelli and Loro Piana, have relied for years on small, telltale signatures. But now a much broader swath of brands, including cooler labels like Wales Bonner, Miu Miu and Loewe, is low-key riffing with logos. The focus has shifted from in-your-face monograms that once loomed on tees and weighed down ‘it’ bags to muted details.”
> Note: If Lyst’s recent indexes of “Fashion’s Hottest Brands and Products” are any indication, both Miu Miu and Loewe are doing it right; with both companies and their products surging in popularity among consumers.
Practically speaking, this is seeing companies use logos that are “debossed (the inverse of embossed) or stitched on via tone-on-tone embroidery” in some cases. In others, designers are “blowing logos up to proportions so exaggerated the motifs become abstract, or tacking plaques onto out-of-the-way spots like collar-backs and hips.” The hypothesis, according to the WSJ, is that “sporting such knowing winks can let you signpost your brand allegiances – and status – to those in-the-know without resembling a billboard.”
In the shift towards the de-branding over bold-branding, one example that stands out for me: Prada’s enduring efforts to whittle down the details of its famed triangle logo, something that we have had our eye on for a few years now. The Italian company’s effort to amass rights in (and registrations for) its upside-down triangle without any of the word elements inside of it affords the company greater leeway to take on copycats but it also enables the company to put forth branding that is a bit more subtle and therefore, in line with current trends in branding.
The transition from quiet luxury to quiet logos is an interesting proposition in light of Bain’s finding that a sizable number of consumers are not looking for obscured indicators of source, and instead, want it to be know – and to be easily discernible – where their wares come from. These “aspirational luxury buyers” are critical for luxury brands’ growth. McKinsey called it early this year, stating in a note that “while price increases and a focus on the wealthiest consumers may help buoy revenues in the short term, these strategies may impede growth in the long term if pursued in a vacuum.” This is because aspirational luxury consumers – i.e., those that spend a “moderate amount” on luxury goods and those that tend to seek out items with clear indicators of source (aka logos or monograms) – account for at least 50 percent of the luxury market’s value.
> For more on quiet luxury from a trademark perspective, you can find that right here.
And in some of the biggest news this week, Tapestry and Capri’s proposed merger is no more. Coach-owner Tapestry announced on Thursday that the two fashion groups have reached an agreement to call off the deal, a move that it says is “in the best interest of both companies, as the outcome of the legal process is uncertain and unlikely to be resolved by the February 10, 2025 outside date.” As part of the “mutually agreed” breakup, which follows from a Federal Trade Commission challenge to the $8.5 billion deal and a recently-issued preliminary injunction, Tapestry will reimburse Capri’s expenses incurred in connection with the transaction of about $45 million, per Reuters.
Tapestry’s execs essentially say that it is business as usual with the deal off the table. It “does not expect any acquisitions in the near-term,” and instead, will focus on ensuring that Coach “remains strong and Kate Spade has returned to sustainable topline growth.”
As for what things look like for Capri going forward, analysts expect a reorganization of the group, which owns Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace. “For Capri, we believe the most shareholder-friendly outcome would be a breakup and a sale of the two luxury brands, Versace and Jimmy Choo, which would maximize company enterprise value and create a cleaner equity story for Michael Kors as a single-brand stock,” Bernstein stated in a note this week.
The consultancy noted that prior to the deal with Tapestry, Capri had “multiple discussions with luxury fashion houses and private investors about selling Versace and Choo,” noting that Versace has luxury credentials and strong brand awareness, and yet, very low market share, implying an opportunity for scale, which would undoubtedly be attractive to big groups in the luxury segment.